QCP Capital

Bitcoin

2026-10-02 11:36:13

QCP says Bitcoin rally is being driven by spot demand, but market structure remains fragile

QCP Capital said Bitcoin has broken out of its week-long $82,500-$85,700 range, briefly reaching $86,913, the highest level since Sept. 23, before trading near $85,900. The firm said the move has been led mainly by spot buying rather than leverage, pointing to a 5.4% annualized perpetual funding rate during the rally. QCP also argued that Bitcoin has risen even as traditional macro signals turned less supportive, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield climbing to 5.62%, the 10-year yield touching 5.29%, and gold posting its worst month of the year in September. According to the firm, the advance looks more like a concentrated flow trade supported by institutional inflows, regulatory catalysts and improving technicals. It cited roughly $3.5 billion and $2.6 billion in net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in August and September, while warning that long-term policy clarity is still limited. QCP added that upcoming U.S. jobs data, Treasury supply and a heavy policy calendar in the coming weeks could still trigger volatility.

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Bitcoin

2026-10-02 11:38:08

QCP says BTC breaks out of week-long range as spot demand, not leverage, drives the move

Bitcoin has broken above its week-long $82,500-$85,700 range, with intraday trading reaching $86,913 and spot prices hovering near $85,900, according to QCP Capital. The firm said the move marked BTC’s highest level since Sept. 23 and left the asset up 14.6% from its Sept. 15 low of $74,968. QCP argued the rally has been driven mainly by spot buying rather than leverage, noting that annualized perpetual funding rates were only 5.4% during the advance. The firm also pointed to a divergence between Bitcoin and traditional macro signals. In September, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.62%, the 10-year yield touched 5.29%, and gold posted its worst month of the year. Even so, BTC continued to climb. QCP linked the move to concentrated flows tied to institutional demand, regulatory catalysts and improving technicals, rather than a simple currency debasement trade. It cited roughly $3.5 billion and $2.6 billion in net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in August and September, while warning that longer-term policy certainty remains limited despite the SEC’s Sept. 17 innovation exemption policy.

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QCP Capital

2026-10-02 10:27:31

QCP Capital says Bitcoin rally is being driven more by spot demand, with $90,000 a key options level

QCP Capital said Bitcoin has broken out of the $82,500-$85,700 consolidation range seen over the past week and briefly climbed to $86,913, marking a 14.6% rebound from its Sept. 15 low. The firm said the move appears to be driven more by spot buying than leverage, pointing to an annualized funding rate of about 5.4% in BTC perpetual futures. It also noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of roughly $3.5 billion in August and $2.6 billion in September. In the options market, clients have cumulatively sold more than 4,000 $90,000 call options expiring on Oct. 30, with notional value of about $346 million, and shifted into buying calls at the same strike for Nov. 27 expiry. QCP sees $82,500 as current support, while $87,400, the September high, stands as a major resistance level on the path toward $90,000.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-07 17:20:52

Bitcoin Dips Below $80K as Thin Liquidity Amplifies Volatility; Inflation Data in Focus

Bitcoin fell nearly 2% on Monday, slipping back below the $80,000 mark in thin holiday liquidity, erasing most of the weekend gains. The retreat came as U.S. markets were closed for Labor Day, reducing market depth and increasing short-term volatility. CoinGlass reported $178 million in total liquidations over the past 24 hours, with long and short positions relatively balanced. Liquidity clusters are concentrated around $80,500 and $78,800. QCP Capital noted that volatility has contracted sharply, and traders are waiting for a new catalyst. This week's U.S. inflation data, due Thursday and Friday, could be the key event to set the direction and potentially alter expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate path. Despite the pullback, Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee highlighted Bitcoin's resilience, saying the fact that it held high ground even after strong U.S. jobs data—which typically boosts bond yields and the dollar—suggests the market does not view potential Fed hikes as the sole driver of price action. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows remain in the spotlight, with a single-day net inflow of $730 million, the highest since January.

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QCP Capital

2026-09-07 10:22:38

QCP says strong U.S. jobs data shifts focus back to inflation, with Bitcoin awaiting CPI cues

QCP Capital said in its latest Market Colour note that the August U.S. jobs report came in much stronger than expected, easing concerns about an economic slowdown and pushing market attention back toward inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, well above the 55,000 consensus and sharply higher than July’s revised 21,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month over month. According to QCP, crypto assets remained supported over the past week. Bitcoin briefly moved above $82,000 before pulling back to around $79,300, while Ether held near $2,500. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $770 million in net inflows from Sept. 1 to Sept. 4, including a single-day net inflow of $730.8 million on Sept. 3 that reversed the roughly $236.5 million outflow seen on Sept. 1. QCP said recent price action has been driven more by macro changes than by crypto-native catalysts. It added that traders appear cautious ahead of fresh inflation data, with BTC struggling to clear the $80,000-$82,000 range and ETH facing selling pressure above $2,500. The market is now watching Aug. PPI on Sept. 10 and Aug. CPI and core CPI on Sept. 11.

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QCP Capital

2026-09-04 11:05:47

QCP Capital Weekly: Fed Rate Hike Odds Swing From 35% to 70% Then Back, BTC Drops 2.5% Then Recovers, ETF Records $202M Outflow

QCP Capital's latest weekly report reveals that Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech sent the probability of a September rate hike from 35% to 70% before settling back to 45-50%. Bitcoin fell 2.5% in a single day then recovered, while spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their first net outflow in nine days, totaling $202 million. The dollar index dropped below 99.5, allowing gold, silver, and BTC to reclaim lost ground. The Treasury will launch its first long-end liquidity support operation on September 9, raising the purchase cap to at least $40 billion. The 30-year bond auction yield hit 5.216%, the highest since 2001. July PCE came in at 3.7% (core 3.3%), and Brent crude surged 10% on a week due to a Strait of Hormuz attack and a Qatar LNG force majeure. Fed Governor Waller said he would support a pause if data trends continue, and ADP employment logged only 38,000, the weakest since January.

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QCP Capital

2026-09-04 10:55:48

QCP Capital: Crypto Spot Demand Recovers, Market Eyes Hawkish Rate Repricing Sustainability

QCP Capital noted that one week after the Jackson Hole symposium, market focus has shifted to the sustainability of hawkish rate repricing. Weak labor data and comments from Fed Governor Waller have brought the September policy discussion back to a choice between holding rates steady or hiking. The U.S. Treasury will launch its first expanded long-dated bond buyback on September 9, alongside concentrated issuance of 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries. Next week's CPI data will also be watched. In crypto, spot demand has rebounded, with BTC trading in the $76,700–$81,500 range. ETF flows recovered strongly on Thursday after prior outflows. Leverage remains controlled, and resistance comes from supply near highs rather than crowded long positions. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls report will be a key test.

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Bitcoin

2026-08-28 15:31:25

Bitcoin slips to $78,442 after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh plays down softer inflation readings

Bitcoin failed to secure a clean move back above $80,000 after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a cautious tone on inflation in his keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. BTC turned volatile after the Friday Wall Street open, briefly falling to $78,442 on Bitstamp before circling near $79,500. TradingView data showed the pair was down about 1% at the time of writing. In his first keynote at the annual event, Warsh said recent downside surprises in the Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures data did not convince him that underlying inflation trends had materially improved. He also recommitted to the Fed’s 2% inflation target and said the central bank would avoid reviving forward guidance as a standard policy tool. The report said US equities held firm on his remarks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both up about 0.5%. On the crypto side, analysis pointed to derivatives positioning as a key factor for any sustained BTC move higher. QCP Capital said a healthier structure would require funding rates to remain contained and open interest to rebuild gradually. CoinGlass data showed BTC/USD was up 26.35% month-to-date, marking its strongest August performance since 2017.

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